Host, J. Carl Ganter: Welcome to Circle of Blue Radio Series 5 and 15, where we are asking global thought leaders five questions in fifteen minutes, more or less. These are experts in journalism, science, communications design, water, and really everything in between. I am J. Carl Ganter, hosting this week, and despite the dark clouds of financial uncertainty and numerous panels about accountability and survival in a new fiscal order, the World Economic Forum continues to focus on water and other long-term global issues. In Davos, Switzerland, at the Forum's annual meeting, I am with Dr. Peter Gleick. He is President of the Pacific Institute and is a member of the Forum's Global Agenda Council on water. He also advises us here at Circle of Blue, the institute just published its bi-annual report, The World's Water. Dr. Gleick, one of the new topics you cover in the new book is peak water. Tell us about it. Dr. Gleick: There has been a lot of discussion in the last few years about the concept of peak oil; that is, are we past or approaching the point at which the global production of oil actually starts to decline inexorably as we use up oil? Similarly, in recent years, there has been growing interest in water, and the extent to which that natural resource, which, frankly, is much more important to us in many ways than oil, is also running out in a sense. Now, for this chapter in this new volume of The World's Water, we thought we ought to take a look at this concept in more detail. And, water and oil have very strong similarities and have very strong differences, which we explore. For example, a significant fraction of the world's food production right now is being grown with non-renewable groundwater; water that's being pumped from the ground faster than nature naturally recharges it. That is very much like the oil situation, and there is definitely a peak water situation brewing in many parts of the world; in central California, in northern China, in parts of India, where unsustainable water use is happening. But, water is a renewable resource globally, unlike oil, and so we are never going to really run out of water. We're not running out of water in the sense that we will run out of oil, but we are running out of what we call peak ecological water. That is, we are running out of the environmental ability to use more water without irreversibly damaging the environment on which we also depend. Every bit of water we use provides some economic benefit. We can grow more food. We can produce more cars or semi-conductors or widgets, and so the more water we take from an economic point of view, people think, gee, that's a great thing. But, similarly, each bit of water that we use causes some ecological damage. We are not at the point in many parts of the planet of peak ecological water, where every bit of additional water we use causes more harm than provides economic benefit, and that's what we really address in this chapter. Host, J. Carl Ganter: Well, the regions, specifically, that are susceptible to peak water; you mentioned California in the United States; what happens when we reach peak water or go over the peak? Dr. Gleick: Well, there are two scenarios that we worry about. One is literally peak water, like peak oil, and that is the over-use, the non-renewable use of water. When we pump groundwater faster than it is recharged, we're using it unsustainably. And in those regions, again, parts of China, India, anywhere where we're pumping groundwater faster than nature recharges it, we have to ultimately stop what we're doing. We're going to not be able to continue to grow the food that we grow with that water or serve the industrial purposes that that water serves, and those lands will go out of production; that industrial production will go out of production. And that's a peak water problem. More broadly, we see widespread environmental damage. The concept of peak ecological water means there are parts of the planet where the environmental damage from our water use is growing and growing and growing. And we see fisheries collapsing and ecosystems disappearing and wetlands drying up. And that's the other piece of this problem. And the converse, in a sense, of peak water is the soft path for water; the idea that we must use water in a sustainable way. And that's, I think, the challenge that faces policy makers in almost every part of the planet. Host, J. Carl Ganter: Well, one of those parts of the planet is China, and you devote quite a bit of attention to the country in the book. And I have seen, up close and personal, China's just really great water challenges. Give us an idea of what's unfolding here. Dr. Gleick: China has a remarkably severe water problem. Almost every aspect of the world's water challenges are found somewhere in China; the failure to meet basic human needs for water, ecosystem degradation and destruction, limits on industry, gross contamination of water resources, scarcity. China is ironically now the epitome of the water crisis. They have every bad water problem and they have every bad water management style that we see around the world. In many parts of the world, we solved some of the water problems that face us, but China is making many of the same mistakes that the industrialized world made 100, 50, 25, 10 years ago. It's a serious problem in China. It's going to limit their agricultural productivity. It's going to limit their industrial production. It's already affecting human health widely through the country. It's causing violence between water users. China has got to get its water problems under control or it's going to face limits on its economic growth. Host, J. Carl Ganter: So, the big question is, are they grappling with this? Are they getting their problems under control? Dr. Gleick: There is a growing awareness of water problems in China. Interestingly, some of the most significant public demonstrations, in a country where public demonstrations are not exactly encouraged, have been over environmental issues and, in particular, over water issues; over water contamination, over water corruption with local factories, over the failure of governments to enforce even the relatively weak water laws that they have. The government itself is making more and more of an effort to address water problems. They are laying down stricter standards for quality. They are trying to get the provinces which have a lot of authority over water to enforce laws. They are putting limits on new factories; water intensive factories around Beijing, which is an area of China that's very severely limited on the waterfront. They're spending billions of dollars building massive infrastructure; old-style infrastructure in many ways, to move water from one part of the country to another part of the country, from the relatively water-rich south to the relatively water-scarce north. These big transfers are, again, sort of echos of the 20th century water projects in the West. They are beginning to price water. Many people think that pricing water is the key factor here in encouraging efficient use of water. And, for the first time, China, which has not priced water traditionally, is beginning to use economics, if you will, to try and get water users to become more efficient, to change investment patterns, to raise money for infrastructure, etc. So, yes, I think China has very, very severe water problems, but, yes, they are trying to make an effort to get them under control. Host, J. Carl Ganter: So, I guess the big question is, will they get them under control before they reach some incredibly severe tipping points? Dr. Gleick: No. I think China will not get its water problems sufficiently under control to avoid very serious problems. We have already seen serious ecological damage in China. We already are seeing evidence, even in the Chinese science community and the Chinese media. We're seeing reports of cancer clusters, ill health around poor water quality. So, they're already committed to serious environmental damage and human health impacts of their water problems. The severity of those problems in the future depends on what they do between now and the future. It depends on what they choose to implement in terms of water policy. The more aggressive they are at trying to get these problems under control, the less severe these problems will be, but they face a very serious uphill battle. Host, J. Carl Ganter: Well, we're here in Davos, where the world's leaders in business and policy have gathered, and I wanted to ask, is the business community starting to get the water issue? Are they starting to understand what it means to their bottom lines, to their sustainability? Dr. Gleick: In the last few years, there has been a growing awareness by the business community that there are implications of their water use, and there are serious risks of the failure to get water problems under control to their businesses. Many businesses use a lot of water. There is an effort now to understand water use in business, to record and report water use, to meet standards for water quality more consistently, but those efforts are just beginning in my opinion. I think this is probably the second year that Davos has seriously considered water. There have been serious discussions among the participants about water challenges facing companies and the world, but certainly they are not doing enough. No business is really yet fully reporting and understanding its own water use, setting goals for reducing water use, improving efficiency. No company has truly put in place a comprehensive effort to work with local communities to reduce the impacts of their water use. That's happening, but it's happening piecemeal. At the same time, there is a water business. There is a $400-$500 Billion a year business associated with selling water services, water equipment, etc. And so, there is interest on the part of those businesses, as well, in trying to figure out, well, how can we make water more of a profitable business, and that rubs some people the wrong way. But it is a reality that there is a water business, and I think making those businesses more green, if you will, making them meet environmental standards, sustainability standards, integrate those concepts into what they do, is very important. We do see some of that here at Davos. We see more certainly than we saw a few years ago. But, it's also true that the financial crisis has somewhat overshadowed some of these green issues that are beginning to find their way into Davos, and I think the truth is that long after the financial crisis is over, these environmental crises will still be with us. The water problems will still be with us, and so it would be very shortsighted to let the financial crisis derail progress towards sustainable business. We see a slowing. We don't yet see a derailing, but it's something to watch out for. Host, J. Carl Ganter: You mentioned business getting it in the bottom line here. Can you get specific about some of the risks to business when they are not thinking about water? Dr. Gleick: Well, there are many business risks associated with water use. Many companies use water. They use it in their process to make beverages, for example. They use it in their process to clean semiconductor chips. One of the risks there is that there will simply not be a cost-effective reliable quality supply of water available for the things companies want to do. Many parts of the world are water-scarce. Ironically, some companies choose to build fairly water-intensive industries in water-scarce areas without really having thought about the risks of shortages, the risks of cutbacks, the risks of conflicts with local communities over that scarce water. And we have already seen, in parts of India and parts of the United States, where companies have gotten into trouble for not understanding the implications of their own water. That's a very important risk. Another important risk is that as companies do things and use water, they often contaminate that water, and they often don't treat that water before they put it back into the environment, the local stream, a river or lake. And that causes environmental problems. It can cause human health problems, and it causes serious political problems and loss of what's typically called goodwill in the license to operate for these companies. And in places where that's been a problem, some companies have literally had their license to operate revoked at costs of 10's or 100's of millions of dollars, because they again have failed to integrate standards and rules for good behavior, if you will, for good water quality into what they do. That's another risk. Finally, there's the risk that they just don't work with local communities; that they don't interact with communities that share the same water that they share. And, ultimately, that can lead to conflicts over who gets to use water for what purposes. The answer, of course, is to address these issues explicitly, and companies are beginning to, but only beginning to, and I think as population grows, as economies grow, as water scarcity becomes more of a problem, I think these risks are going to grow and not shrink. And the smart companies are going to be the ones that proactively work to reduce those risks. Host, J. Carl Ganter: Well, turning to U.S. policy and polities, during the election, you made recommendations to both candidates regarding water policies; what they could be and maybe what they should be. So now, we have a new President, President Obama, and what do you think he will do? What do you think he should do? Dr. Gleick: Well, the nation, as a whole, needs a new national water rethink; a new national water policy. There are many water issues that are purely local, that need to be addressed at the local level, but there are many at the national and international level; the way we deal with foreign aid and other countries where water conflicts are a problem, the way we spend money to help Africa to meet water and sanitation needs. All of that needs to be rethought. National standards for water quality and drinking water need to be rethought and reevaluated. There are many things that could lead to better integration of water policy at the national level; policy that's not well integrated at the moment; that's split among 10 or 15 or 20 federal agencies. So, rethink water policy. Rethink water quality issues. Rethink environmental water use. Rethink international security issues around water. Those are all ripe for new thinking in the Obama administration. Whether those things get done, I think partly depends on other priorities. It depends on the degree to which some of the President's new science advisors and new cabinet understand the connections between water and energy and climate. I think there's a good chance they do understand or can understand those issues, and we'll look optimistically forward. Host, J. Carl Ganter: We've been at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, hearing from Dr. Peter Gleick, President of the Pacific Institute. The new book is called The World's Water. For more on water and related issues, be sure to tune into Circle of Blue online at circleofblue.org. Our theme is composed by Nadav Kahn, and we have had support today from Traverse Legal. Join us again for Circle of Blue Radio's 5 and 15. I'm J. Carl Ganter. Return |
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